Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 22.625808 24.594837 26.715661 29.179868 31.977008 35.068400 38.764166
2026-01-18 19.308752 21.976083 25.045870 28.879491 33.595167 39.282515 46.780733
2026-01-25 17.098683 20.149746 23.845220 28.734412 35.164823 43.533293 55.603939
2026-02-01 15.522947 18.806088 22.950016 28.702000 36.715262 47.877610 65.394911
2026-02-08 14.269113 17.679965 22.133477 28.570220 37.996235 51.953239 75.661142
2026-02-15 13.250039 16.729811 21.405712 28.404572 39.117860 55.893047 86.626344
2026-02-22 12.396597 15.907564 20.744174 28.210413 40.104628 59.720220 98.379245
2026-03-01 11.717620 15.258046 20.247104 28.172124 41.283242 64.023530 112.274247
2026-03-08 11.130821 14.685308 19.797744 28.134326 42.421525 68.427981 127.822166
2026-03-15 10.842933 14.515241 19.919377 28.997636 45.204610 76.451667 154.653874
2026-03-22 10.306578 13.937200 19.366004 28.679701 45.803907 80.254468 172.790461
2026-03-29 9.884251 13.500444 18.994390 28.621918 46.864779 85.237721 196.555748
2026-04-05 9.545246 13.179848 18.798610 28.878619 48.637448 92.389672 231.656109
2026-04-12 9.128229 12.714429 18.336692 28.618020 49.346240 97.293801 263.062899
2026-04-19 8.771928 12.323100 17.967972 28.489424 50.313245 103.127090 302.799380
2026-04-26 8.463963 11.990097 17.671670 28.463479 51.496731 109.889369 353.052572
2026-05-03 8.162993 11.651015 17.340568 28.335749 52.432894 116.277865 409.077274
2026-05-10 7.879339 11.324631 17.008896 28.173047 53.263751 122.651384 473.856402
2026-05-17 7.611896 11.011037 16.678988 27.981538 53.998280 129.006592 549.013743
2026-05-24 7.386807 10.756340 16.436635 27.943863 55.106314 137.003289 651.407274
2026-05-31 7.176718 10.516382 16.205366 27.906570 56.212802 145.458606 778.733215
2026-06-07 7.105347 10.506724 16.389091 28.760014 59.798011 164.584939 1075.572317
2026-06-14 6.878885 10.220745 16.046723 28.445751 60.176799 171.474606 1266.191206